TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Mayo vs J. Duckworth (Los Cabos on 2026-07-28) — the market is efficient, with J. Duckworth favoured at 1.38.
A. Mayo (A, #291, age 23) vs J. Duckworth (B, #86, age 34) — Los Cabos, hard, R1.
MODELS (prob A / Mayo):
ELO 30.5% | Sim baseline 29.4% | ML 51.4% | Book(norm) 31.1% | Betfair 45.5%
Massive model split. ELO+Sim agree Mayo ~30%; ML says 51%; exchange lands 45.5%.
Book Mayo 3.06 -> Betfair 2.2: the exchange has ALREADY moved 14pts off the book,
pricing in Duckworth's rust/transition. Book 3.06 is a stale quote, NOT value.
SIM INTERROGATION (resimulate):
Baseline: Mayo 29.4% (spw .588/rpw .401/hold .792 vs Duck spw .619/rpw .411/hold .864).
Duckworth's serve stats built largely on GRASS (6 of last ~11 matches) where serve is
inflated, + 25 days off + grass->hard transition. Justified shade spw_b .619->.569
(clamped ok) -> Mayo win prob jumps to 54.8%. So the sim swings 29% -> 55% on ONE
±0.05 input I cannot pin down. Exchange 45.5% sits in the middle of that band =>
no robust edge; the market is the best available estimate here.
RECENT FORM (last 5):
Mayo (all hard, match-sharp, playing constantly): 07-27 W 6-1 6-4 vs Pascual(1568) DOM;
07-26 W 6-4 6-2 vs King(1195) DOM-weak; 07-22 L 6-3 6-7 7-6 vs Michelsen(1856 Elite)
narrow loss = good shape; 07-20 LOST FINAL 6-7 6-3 6-7 vs Magadan(1379 Weak) = poor;
07-19 W vs Langmo(1465) GRIND. STABLE at LOW level (Challenger-grade fields).
Duckworth (ALL grass/clay, NO hard): 07-02 L Cobolli(1656); 06-30 W Griekspoor(1647)
quality; 06-20 L Hussey(1427) flat; 06-13 L Vukic(1636) 3-6 2-6 poor; 06-11 L
Lehecka(1777). Grass results fading + now cold.
FATIGUE:
Mayo EXTREME spot: match TODAY (07-27, won title), 4 matches/7d, 21 sets/14d,
back_to_back 3, 820 court-min. Age 23 = baseline (no softening). Genuine negating
risk to backing Mayo — a title-winner turning around same-day gets run down.
Duckworth: 0 matches in 14d, last match 25 days ago, well_rested -> RUST RISK (>21d).
NARRATIVE:
Surface transition: Duckworth grass/clay -> hard = TRANSITION (depresses level, WIDENS
margins). Per Step 3, a transition on the side you'd back for a cover is a RISK, never
support -> kills a Duckworth -1.5 cover thesis. Mayo all hard = no transition.
Title recency: Mayo won "Los Cabos" 0d ago on hard, but at a Challenger-grade field.
GATES (best candidate = Mayo ML on the ML/exchange lean):
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — ML 51.4% vs Betfair effective 46.7% = ~4.7% raw, and ELO+Sim
say ~30%; strip narrative and no market clears the 5% bar (all edges -/thin, below).
G2 consensus: FAIL — ELO AND Sim both sit against a Mayo pick (~30%); no hard
independent evidence (no on-surface H2H, Duckworth has zero live hard-court results).
G3 fatal-risk: FAIL — backing Mayo: extreme fatigue (played today) negates "sharp
enough to win"; backing Duckworth: 25d rust + surface transition widens margins and
depresses level, negating a short-price win/cover.
EXECUTABLE-PRICE EDGES (Betfair, 5% commission):
Mayo ML 2.2 edge -1.2% (min 2.31) | Duck ML 1.8 edge -2.3% (min 1.93)
Mayo +1.5 1.88 edge -9.5% | Duck -1.5 2.02 edge +1.2% (below bar + transition risk)
Under 23.0 1.95 edge +3.4% (below 5% bar, rests on grass-inflated hold stats)
VERDICT: PASS. Models wildly split; my own sim spans both sides of the exchange price
on a single ±0.05 input, so the 45.5% market price is the best estimate and no market
clears the 5% bar at the executable price. Both sides carry a fatal risk (Mayo extreme
same-day fatigue / Duckworth rust+transition). Book 3.06 on Mayo is already corrected by
the exchange to 2.2 — stale, not value. No edge to stake.