TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Li vs Z. Sonmez (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with Z. Sonmez favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Li | Z. Sonmez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.5% | 78.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.5% | 62.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.3% | 62.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
Z. Sonmez leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 26, 2026 | WTA Merida | hard | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 4, 2024 | WTA Merida | hard | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The ML model identifies an edge for Li (52.9%), but this is driven primarily by 'hard_elo_diff', a questionable metric for a grass match where Sonmez holds a massive +225 general ELO advantage and recent title form. Market trend analysis indicates Li is 'possibly over-priced' as the market chases her form despite poor results against strong opponents. While Sonmez carries significant fatigue (23 sets/14 days), her 1732 grass ELO and recent title demonstrate a class gap that the dampened consensus model undervalues. The mathematical edge on Li is deemed unreliable due to the ML model's spurious driver; however, Sonmez's fatigue makes the 1.66 odds unappealing, leading to a pass.