TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Li vs E. Alexandrova (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with E. Alexandrova favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Li | E. Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.6% | 80.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.9% | 53.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.3% | 46.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.9% | 60.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.2% | 58.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Li | hard | 1725 | 116–89 | 205 |
| E. Alexandrova | hard | 1760 | 103–77 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
E. Alexandrova leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 1 |
| May 19, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | A. Li | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 8, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| April 2, 2025 | Charleston | clay | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 1 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tararudee | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus gives Alexandrova a 59.2% win probability, creating a razor-thin 0.4% edge over the devigged market odds and a 0.0 Kelly suggestion. Qualitatively, backing a 1.61 favorite with a dreadful 3-12 record over the last 180 days is highly risky, especially since Li defeated her in their last meeting just a month ago. With the edge well within the bookmaker's margin and the favorite struggling for form, there is no actionable value in this line.