TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Krueger vs M. Hontama (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with A. Krueger favoured at 1.17.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Krueger | M. Hontama |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
87.2% | 12.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
83.0% | 17.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
83.2% | 16.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
79.4% | 20.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Krueger | hard | 1720 | 94–83 | 177 |
| M. Hontama | hard | 1597 | 153–123 | 276 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
A. Krueger leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 16, 2023 | WTA Osaka | hard | A. Krueger | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Inglis | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | H. Sakatsume | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | J. Lu | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used