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A. Korneeva vs M. Stoiana — Prediction & Analysis

Toronto · WTA Toronto - Final · Aug. 1, 2026 · 14:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Korneeva vs M. Stoiana (Toronto on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with A. Korneeva favoured at 1.50.

Surface hard Odds A. Korneeva 1.50 · M. Stoiana 2.50

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: A. Korneeva · M. Stoiana · head-to-head record · Toronto

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method A. Korneeva M. Stoiana
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 72.5% 27.5%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 70.0% 30.0%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 56.7% 43.3%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 65.0% 35.0%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 62.5% 37.5%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
A. Korneeva hard1826 106–32138
M. Stoiana hard1629 61–3798

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.

Head to head

A. Korneeva leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 1, 2026TorontohardA. Korneeva2 - 1

Recent form

A. Korneeva

W P. Kudermetova 1 - 0 Aug. 3, 2026
W M. Stoiana 2 - 1 Aug. 1, 2026
L M. Sakkari 2 - 0 July 18, 2026
W T. Valentova 0 - 2 July 17, 2026
W A. Li 2 - 0 July 16, 2026

M. Stoiana

L A. Korneeva 2 - 1 Aug. 1, 2026
L P. Stearns 1 - 2 July 28, 2026
L Y. Ku 1 - 2 July 24, 2026
W J. Pareja 2 - 0 July 23, 2026
W A. S. Rogers 2 - 0 July 22, 2026

All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

═══ A. Korneeva (A) vs M. Stoiana (B) — Toronto, hard, FINAL ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO A 72.5% | ML A 70.0% | blended model A 65.0%
  Book odds A 1.50 (impl 66.7%) / B 2.50 (impl 40%); devigged A 62.5%
  value_pick A, value_edge +2.5% — thin. betfair_ml NULL (no exchange price).
  Blended model (65%) sits essentially ON market (62.5–66.7%). Only ELO (72.5%)
  pushes a gap, and Korneeva's ELO is a 17yo rating inflated by junior-slam wins
  over 1500–1800 fields — low trust, discount it (ELO 72.5% vs rank 174).

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown)
  A (Korneeva, 17, rank 174): last match 07-18 Athens quali — L SF vs Sakkari
    (1838) 6-1 7-5; W QF vs Valentova (1834); W vs A.Li (1500) 6-2 6-2 DOM;
    W vs Ito (1500). Elite junior on the rise (French Open + Wimbledon junior
    titles in window). Shape STABLE-to-SHARPENING but 14-DAY LAYOFF = rust risk;
    no Toronto path shown in data.
  B (Stoiana, 23, rank 223): 07-28 Memphis quali L vs Stearns (1500) 7-6 0-6 4-6;
    07-24 Evansville W100 L vs Ku; 07-23 W vs Pareja; 07-22 W vs Rogers 6-1 6-1.
    Lost 2 of last 3, grinding weak-field W100/quali. Shape FADING.

PATH / DATA GAP
  Neither player's Toronto-final run appears in the 90d window (A last=07-18,
  B last=07-28). Path/shape at THIS venue is unreadable — a material blind spot
  for a FINAL. Cannot confirm match-sharpness at the event either way.

FATIGUE (Step 2)
  B: matches_14d 4, court 333min, back_to_back 2, last match 07-28 (4d ago).
  Heavy cumulative load = CONTEXT only, no extreme spot (last match not yesterday,
  and it was a LOSS — no 3-set-hangover haircut). A: rested (0 in 7d) but rusty.
  Net: roughly equal, no fatigue edge to stake.

NARRATIVE
  No let-down (no recent Final win/loss inside trigger window for either at venue).
  Surface: both on hard now; A's last was hard (Athens), B's last hard (Memphis) —
  no transition penalty.

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — blended model (65%) is at market; only low-trust ELO
    manufactures a gap, and it misses the 8% book-priced bar (no exchange price).
    Stripping narrative leaves no numeric edge ≥ bar.
  G2 consensus:   stake-tier only — models cluster with market (no dispersion edge).
  G3 fatal-risk:  n/a (ML, no margin bet); would not rescue a failed G1.

PRICING
  No betfair_ml → ML needs edge ≥ 8% vs book (rule #4). Best case ELO 5.8% vs 1.50,
  blended NEGATIVE (0.65 < 0.667). Bar not met.

VERDICT: PASS. Models sit on the market, the only gap comes from a low-trust
junior ELO, there is no exchange price to execute against, and the venue path is
a data blind spot. No stakeable edge. alt_markets: none at analysis time.

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