TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Kalinina vs K. Rakhimova (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with A. Kalinina favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Kalinina | K. Rakhimova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.7% | 41.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.8% | 43.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.0% | 38.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kalinina | hard | 1699 | 83–69 | 152 |
| K. Rakhimova | hard | 1705 | 109–97 | 206 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 1 |
| April 22, 2026 | Madrid | clay | A. Kalinina | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Bondar | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. L. Carle | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | H. Watson | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinina | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | O. Selekhmeteva | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon 1/64 (grass) — A. Kalinina vs K. Rakhimova MODELS - ELO prob A: 0.499 (coinflip) - ML prob A: 0.587 - Ensemble model prob A: 0.568 - Market implied A: 0.620 (Kalinina 1.53 / Rakhimova 2.50) - Devig edge: value_pick B, +5.2% on Rakhimova FORM — Kalinina (grass/recent) - 06-24 L Kessler 6-4 6-3 (Strong 1662) - 06-22 W Snigur 7-6 7-5 GRIND (Strong 1679) - 06-15 reached Berlin Final, L Parry 6-4 7-5 (Strong 1755) - Title runs at Madrid & Rome earlier (won finals). Deep, consistent runs vs Strong opposition. FORM — Rakhimova (grass/recent) - 06-20 L Selekhmeteva 6-7 6-2 1-6 (WEAK 1456) — loss to a weak opponent - 06-13 L Raducanu 6-3 7-5 (Strong 1778) - 06-12 W Dart 7-5 1-6 7-5 GRIND (Avg 1635) - 06-07 reached London Final, L Maria 6-4 6-3 (Strong 1741) - Mixed grass form; recent loss to sub-1500 hurts. H2H: Kalinina beat Rakhimova 6-2 5-7 6-2 (Madrid, 04-22, clay). FATIGUE - Kalinina: 4 matches/14d, ~273min court time, last match 06-24 (6d rest) - Rakhimova: 2 matches/14d, ~157min, last match 06-20 (10d rest) - Court-time diff >60min favors Rakhimova on freshness, but 6d rest largely neutralizes it. NARRATIVE - Let-down: neither won a final recently (both LOST their last finals — NOTE only). - Title recency: none won; live form > historical. VERDICT The model edge on Rakhimova stems almost entirely from ELO being a coinflip while ML (0.587) and market (0.620) both favor Kalinina. The qualitative read does NOT validate backing the underdog: Kalinina owns the H2H, has the deeper/higher-quality run (Berlin final, Strong-opp wins), while Rakhimova just lost to a sub-1500 player. Fatigue tilt to Rakhimova is muted by 6 days of rest for both. Marginal +5.2% edge is killed by the form/H2H read. PASS.