TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Hesse vs Y. Kotliar (Rome on 2026-07-12) — the market is efficient, with A. Hesse favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Hesse | Y. Kotliar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.6% | 41.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.1% | 50.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.9% | 44.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hesse | hard | 1519 | 85–88 | 173 |
| Y. Kotliar | clay | 1511 | 71–48 | 119 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 27, 2026.
Y. Kotliar leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | Y. Kotliar | 2 - 1 |
| L | Y. Kotliar | 1 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | B. Palicova | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | E. Vedder | 2 - 0 | June 27, 2026 |
| W | F. Tian | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Ristic | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Spiteri | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Prisacariu | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Mazzola | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
All July 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used