TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Guerrieri vs F. A. Gomez (Umag on 2026-07-12) — the market is efficient, with A. Guerrieri favoured at 1.56.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Guerrieri | F. A. Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.0% | 31.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
71.7% | 28.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.0% | 31.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.9% | 41.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Guerrieri | clay | 1677 | 98–70 | 168 |
| F. A. Gomez | clay | 1611 | 131–82 | 213 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 12, 2026.
F. A. Gomez leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2026 | Umag | clay | F. A. Gomez | 2 - 0 |
| W | O. Wallin | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | L. Nardi | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | H. Dellien | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | O. Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Choinski | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Pucinelli de Almeida | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | S. Pieri | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Schoenhaus | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
All July 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used