TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Guerrieri vs D. Goffin (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with D. Goffin favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Guerrieri | D. Goffin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.5% | 62.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Guerrieri | clay | 1677 | 98–70 | 168 |
| D. Goffin | hard | 1610 | 86–90 | 176 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 12, 2026.
A. Guerrieri leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Guerrieri | 2 - 1 |
| W | O. Wallin | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | L. Nardi | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | H. Dellien | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | O. Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | T. Samuel | 2 - 1 | May 20, 2026 |
| W | C. H. Tseng | 2 - 0 | May 18, 2026 |
| L | T. Faurel | 2 - 0 | April 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Nava | 2 - 0 | April 11, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used