TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Gasanova vs N. Osaka (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with N. Osaka favoured at 1.03.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Gasanova | N. Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.4% | 61.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
9.8% | 90.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
17.7% | 82.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
5.3% | 94.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gasanova | hard | 1654 | 123–68 | 191 |
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 15, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | H. Tan | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | S. Bandecchi | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Arango | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
A. Gasanova (A, @18.5) vs N. Osaka (B, @1.03) — Wimbledon 1/32, grass. MODELS: ELO 38.4% A | ML 9.8% A | model 17.7% A | market 5.3% A. Devig value_pick A, edge +12.4%. Wide internal disagreement: ELO is the lone outlier giving Gasanova 38% — almost certainly a miscalibration from Osaka's depressed comeback rating. ML (9.8%) hugs the market (5.3%). FORM A (Gasanova): Won a low-level grass event 06-22..06-25. Beat Lepchenko 1480 (GRIND), Jones 1683 (GRIND, only Strong scalp), Semenistaja 1571 in Final 6-4 6-2 (DOM). 06-29 Wimbledon 1/64 beat Arango 1470 6-3 6-1 (DOM). Ceiling ~1550-1600; routinely loses to 1690+ (Kudermetova, Grabher, Dart, Minnen). FORM B (Osaka): Reached Bad Homburg (WTA-500) final with DOM straight-set wins over three Strong players — Mertens 1782, Alexandrova 1790, Xin Wang 1847. RETIRED in the final 06-27 vs Muchova 1747 (down 6-1 1-0 — injury flag), then WON Wimbledon 1/64 06-29 6-1 7-5. Former world #1, elite level on grass. FATIGUE: Both heavy. A: 4 matches/14d, ~12 sets, 299min, b2b 2. B: 6 matches/14d, ~18 sets, 307min, b2b 3, plus a mid-match retirement 06-27. Roughly equal court time; Osaka carries the injury question, not Gasanova. NARRATIVE: Gasanova LETDOWN-WEAK (won ITF-level Final 5-6d ago). Osaka NOTE — lost/retired Bad Homburg final 06-27, only real angle for the underdog. VERDICT: PASS. The +12.4% 'edge' is pure ELO miscalibration on a comeback-depressed Osaka rating. ML and market agree she is a heavy favorite, and the live-form read overwhelmingly validates that (three DOM wins over 1780-1847 vs Gasanova's wins over sub-1600s). Osaka's Bad Homburg retirement is the only thing that could make an 18.5 longshot interesting — but she played and won 06-29, so she is fit enough, and the qualitative gulf is far too large to back an ITF-level player at this number. No edge, no bet.