A. Fils vs F. Tiafoe — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · · Aug. 23, 2026 · 20:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Under 23.5 games at 1.94 in A. Fils vs F. Tiafoe (Cincinnati on 2026-08-23). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds A. Fils 1.54 · F. Tiafoe 2.30

Bot bet

Under 23.5 games @ 1.94 · 0.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: A. Fils · F. Tiafoe · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method A. Fils F. Tiafoe
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
60.5% 39.5%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
63.5% 36.5%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
59.8% 40.2%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
60.9% 39.1%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
59.9% 40.1%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
A. Fils hard1989 99–63162
F. Tiafoe hard1962 138–89227

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 31, 2026.

Head to head

A. Fils leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 23, 2026CincinnatihardA. Fils2 - 1
March 24, 2025MiamihardA. Fils2 - 1

Recent form

A. Fils

L S. Tsitsipas 3 - 1 Aug. 31, 2026
W F. Tiafoe 2 - 1 Aug. 23, 2026
W F. Cobolli 0 - 2 Aug. 22, 2026
W T. A. Tirante 0 - 2 Aug. 21, 2026
W A. De Minaur 2 - 0 Aug. 19, 2026

F. Tiafoe

L B. Shelton 1 - 3 Sept. 11, 2026
W A. Michelsen 3 - 2 Sept. 8, 2026
W D. Medvedev 0 - 3 Sept. 6, 2026
W V. Vacherot 0 - 3 Sept. 4, 2026
W R. Sakamoto 0 - 3 Sept. 2, 2026

All Aug. 23, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →