TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. De Minaur (moneyline) at 2.54 in A. Fils vs A. De Minaur (Cincinnati on 2026-08-19). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Fils | A. De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.2% | 43.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.2% | 20.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.0% | 48.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.4% | 47.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fils | hard | 1989 | 99–63 | 162 |
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1943 | 165–85 | 250 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 31, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 19, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | A. Fils | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 10, 2026 | Rotterdam | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| July 8, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | A. De Minaur | 3 - 1 |
| April 18, 2024 | ATP Barcelona | clay | A. Fils | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 3 - 1 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| W | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 | Aug. 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Cobolli | 0 - 2 | Aug. 22, 2026 |
| W | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 2 | Aug. 21, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | Aug. 19, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 3 - 0 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 3 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | Aug. 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Fery | 0 - 2 | Aug. 17, 2026 |
| W | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | Aug. 15, 2026 |
All Aug. 19, 2026 results & picks →