TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. De Minaur (moneyline) at 2.54 in A. Fils vs A. De Minaur (Cincinnati on 2026-08-19). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Fils | A. De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.2% | 43.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.2% | 20.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.0% | 48.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.4% | 47.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fils | hard | 1965 | 109–68 | 177 |
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1994 | 177–89 | 266 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 5, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 19, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | A. Fils | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 10, 2026 | Rotterdam | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| July 8, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | A. De Minaur | 3 - 1 |
| April 18, 2024 | ATP Barcelona | clay | A. Fils | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | T. Machac | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 0 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 1 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 0 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 0 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
All Aug. 19, 2026 results & picks →