TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Eala vs R. Zarazua (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with A. Eala favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Eala | R. Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
82.8% | 17.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
72.5% | 27.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
70.1% | 29.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
82.8% | 17.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.9% | 21.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Eala | hard | 1905 | 174–90 | 264 |
| R. Zarazua | hard | 1720 | 110–84 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Eala | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 15, 2024 | ITF W100 Cary, NC Women | hard | R. Zarazua | 2 - 1 |
| W | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
A. Eala vs R. Zarazua | Wimbledon R128 (grass) | 2026-06-30 MODELS: ELO 0.828 | ML 0.725 | Serve/Return 0.701 | Blend 0.828 (A). Market: Eala 1.20 (impl 0.789), Zarazua 4.50 (impl 0.211). Value edge +3.9% A, but break-even at 1.20 = 0.833 true prob. FORM (grass): - Eala: WON vs Svitolina 6-3 6-4 (DOM vs Elite 1840), WON vs Rybakina 7-5 6-4 (DOM vs Elite 1838), WON vs Vekic 7-5 6-4 (DOM vs Strong 1817), Birmingham TITLE 06-07. Recent dips: lost Mertens 3-6 3-6, Noskova 2-6 4-6. Operating at 1800+ level on grass. - Zarazua: clay specialist. Grass wins ONLY vs sub-1500 (Thamm 1500, Marcinko 1462, Timofeeva 1334). Blown out by every quality grass foe: Xin Wang 1-6 2-6, Noskova 1-6 4-6, Krejcikova 1-6 2-6, lost Bad Homburg final to Kraus 1515. FATIGUE: Both last played 06-22 (8 days rest) -> washed out. 14d load A 319min/5m, B 384min/6m; B slightly heavier but rest neutralizes. Roughly equal. NARRATIVE: Eala title Birmingham 06-07 (23d ago, WEAK let-down, irrelevant now). No venue history (first Wimbledon meeting). Huge class gap on grass favors Eala. VERDICT: Eala is correctly a heavy favorite and predicted winner. But the genuine class edge is fully priced at 1.20 -- model 0.828 sits BELOW the 0.833 break-even, ML (0.725) is well under market, and her last grass outing was a straight-sets loss. Risk 1u to win 0.2u with no margin. Zarazua dog (4.50) also offers no value (model 0.17 vs 0.22 needed). PASS -- no exploitable edge, price too short.