TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Dudeney vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with J. Bouzas Maneiro favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Dudeney | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.9% | 80.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.7% | 64.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
34.5% | 65.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.0% | 70.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.7% | 71.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Dudeney | hard | 1715 | 68–29 | 97 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 18, 2026.
J. Bouzas Maneiro leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Rajecki | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Zhiyenbayeva | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | N. Bains | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | H. Klugman | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | V. Allen | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical consensus identifies a microscopic 0.2% edge for Bouzas Maneiro, resulting in a zero-unit Kelly suggestion which effectively signals no bet. Qualitative analysis reveals no structural advantage: Dudeney is a high-variance player with a losing grass record (2-4), while Bouzas Maneiro is stable but offers no statistical dominance. Crucially, the ML model contradicts the ELO model by finding value on the underdog, which neutralizes the favorite's theoretical edge. Without a clear angle or sufficient margin of safety, this is a no-bet situation.