TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Dougaz vs R. Sakamoto (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with R. Sakamoto favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Dougaz | R. Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
23.2% | 76.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.5% | 64.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
23.2% | 76.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.7% | 66.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Dougaz | hard | 1603 | 196–108 | 304 |
| R. Sakamoto | hard | 1676 | 79–55 | 134 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
R. Sakamoto leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 |
| W | D. Sakellaridis | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Bojarski | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Duran | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Robert | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | T. Legout | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | J. Leroux | 2 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 3 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Dougaz | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Matusevich | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used