TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs R. A. Burruchaga (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.03.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | R. A. Burruchaga |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
88.3% | 11.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.8% | 20.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
86.7% | 13.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
93.6% | 6.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| R. A. Burruchaga | clay | 1802 | 200–127 | 327 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: A. De Minaur vs R. A. Burruchaga — Wimbledon 1/64-finals (grass) MODELS: ELO 88.4% A | ML 79.8% A | model 86.7% A | market 93.6% A (odds A 1.03 / B 15.0). Devig gives B 6.4%; model 13.3% B -> bot flags +6.9% 'value' on B. FORM (De Minaur, grass): Reached Hertogenbosch FINAL 06-14 (L vs Majchrzak 1806, 3-6 6-2 6-7). London QF 06-19 (L vs Nakashima 1779 5-7 3-6). Quality grass wins: Mannarino 1813 6-4 6-0 (DOM vs Strong), Bonzi 1733 6-2 6-4 (DOM vs Strong), Diallo 1700 7-6 6-3 (GRIND vs Strong), Shapovalov 1591 6-4 6-1 (DOM). Elite all-surface top player in genuine grass form. FORM (Burruchaga): Clay specialist. ONLY grass match this season = L to A. Fery (1687) at Eastbourne 2-6 6-4 5-7. Best results all on clay (Houston Final April, Cagliari SF). Grass is clearly not his surface. FATIGUE: De Minaur last played 06-19 -> 11 days rest, fresh despite busy June. Burruchaga 1 match in 14d. No fatigue edge for the underdog. NARRATIVE: No active let-down (De Minaur lost Hertogenbosch final 16d ago; Burruchaga lost Houston final back in April). No Wimbledon venue history in window. VERDICT: Full model + market consensus on De Minaur (all >79%). The lone 'edge' is a devig artifact on a 15.0 longshot clay-courter playing on grass against an in-form grass finalist — surface mismatch and class gap kill it. No qualitative validation to back Burruchaga; De Minaur at 1.03 offers no value. PASS.