TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs C. Hewitt (Washington on 2026-07-30) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.09.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | C. Hewitt |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
92.3% | 7.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
83.7% | 16.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
71.4% | 28.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
92.3% | 7.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
86.7% | 13.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| C. Hewitt | hard | 1554 | 31–33 | 64 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2026 | Washington | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Giron | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 1 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | D. Lajovic | 0 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Boogaard | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
All July 30, 2026 results & picks →
De Minaur vs C. Hewitt - Washington, hard. MODELS: ELO 92.3pct De Minaur | ML 83.7pct | market (book 1.09 / Betfair 1.10) implies ~91pct. ELO and market agree tightly; ML is the lone outlier at 83.7pct. RECENT FORM: De Minaur (27, No.6): beat Tsitsipas 1819 6-4 3-6 6-3 yesterday (GRIND over Strong); Wimbledon 1/8 loss to Cobolli; strong grass run. Established top-6 form. STABLE. Hewitt (17, No.653): a junior. Record is Boys Wimbledon plus M15/M25 futures vs 1300-1600 ELO fields; Washington main-draw entries look data-corrupted (Final before 1/16, mislabeled). No genuine tour-level results. Low base level. FATIGUE: De Minaur won a 3-set 136min match YESTERDAY, calibrated -4.5pp 3-set-hangover (age 27 baseline). Adjusted ELO ~87.8pct, still far above market. Hewitt heavier 14d load but irrelevant to junior-vs-top6 gap. NARRATIVE: no let-down/title signals. Both on hard, no transition. ELO/RANK SANITY: Hewitt ranked 653; the ML 16.3pct for him is a data-sparsity artifact (few pro matches, junior ELO), not insight. Discount it. ELO and rank agree De Minaur ~90pct+ favourite. GATES G1 edge-origin: FAIL - favourite ELO edge only +1pct at Betfair 1.10 (min 1.15); dog edge 5.86pct is a lone-ML artifact with no qualitative validation. G2 consensus: lone-ML signal, contaminated (junior sparse data), stake-tier note only. G3 fatal-risk: n/a (ML), does not block. VERDICT: PASS. Favourite has no value (edge +1pct, below 5pct bar). Dog 5.86pct ML edge is manufactured by an unreliable model on a 17yo with corrupted/thin data; ELO and market both ~91pct, no qualitative case for Hewitt over 10pct. No bet.