TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs A. Mannarino (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.24.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | A. Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.6% | 38.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
87.4% | 12.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.6% | 38.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.8% | 23.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| A. Mannarino | hard | 1711 | 105–111 | 216 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 7–1 over 8 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 |
| June 13, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 5, 2025 | Others matches | — | A. De Minaur | 3 - 1 |
| June 23, 2023 | ATP London | grass | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 19, 2023 | Australian Open | hard | A. De Minaur | 3 - 1 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | R. Bertola | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
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A. De Minaur vs A. Mannarino — Wimbledon 1/32 (grass)
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MODELS
ELO : DM 61.6% (under market)
ML : DM 87.4% (over market)
Serve/Ret : DM 46.1%
Model : DM 61.6% / Mann 38.4%
Market : DM 1.24 (impl 76.8%) | Mann 4.10 (impl 23.2%)
Value tag : B, edge +15.2% (math-only, no mutual agreement)
FORM (grass, most recent first)
DE MINAUR
W vs Burruchaga (1515 Weak) 7-6 6-1 6-0 GRIND->rout
L vs Nakashima (1779 Strong) 5-7 3-6 (London QF)
W vs Shapovalov (1591 Avg) 6-4 6-1 DOM
W vs Diallo (1700 Strong) 7-6 6-3 GRIND
L Hertogenbosch FINAL vs Majchrzak (1806) 3-6 6-2 6-7
W vs MANNARINO (SF) 6-4 6-0 DOM <-- H2H 19d ago
MANNARINO
W vs Droguet (1639 Avg) 6-2 6-4 6-1 DOM
L vs Borges (1764) 2-6 2-6
L vs Fery (1686) 6-7 4-6
W vs Mensik (1609) double TB GRIND
L vs DE MINAUR (SF) 4-6 0-6 crushed
-> multiple losses to sub-1750 opponents this grass swing
FATIGUE
DM : 4 matches/14d, ~338 court-min, last 06-30
Mann : 4 matches/14d, ~408 court-min, last 06-30
Edge : Slight — Mannarino ~70min heavier, both played 06-30. Minor DM lean.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: DM lost (not won) last Final 18d ago -> NOTE only, no fade.
Venue : neutral (Slam wk1).
H2H : DM won last meeting 6-4 6-0 on grass, 19 days ago — dominant.
VERDICT
The only "edge" is the implied-prob value tag on B, but ELO/ML do not
mutually agree and the qualitative read kills the underdog case: DM
destroyed Mannarino 6-4 6-0 on this exact surface 19d ago, is the far
superior grass player, and Mannarino has been losing to weaker names.
Market 1.24 is fair-to-generous; no validated edge, no value on B.
DECISION: PASS.