TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Blinkova vs M. Kostyuk (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with M. Kostyuk favoured at 1.11.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Blinkova | M. Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.4% | 48.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.1% | 59.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
11.6% | 88.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Blinkova | hard | 1646 | 101–95 | 196 |
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1904 | 118–72 | 190 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Kostyuk leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 1 |
| March 23, 2025 | Miami | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Sasnovich | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Zantedeschi | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ A. Blinkova (A) vs M. Kostyuk (B) Wimbledon · grass · 1/32-finals · 2026-07-02 ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO prob A .......... 0.514 ML prob A ........... 0.531 Model prob A ........ 0.401 (favors B) Market: A 8.45 (11.6%) / B 1.11 (88.4%) value_pick A, edge +28.5% <-- driven by ELO/ML mispricing, NOT validated FORM — A. Blinkova (grass, last 90d): POOR L R64 Wimbledon 6-7 4-6... 1-6 vs Starodubtseva (2d ago, blew a set lead) L Bad Homburg FINAL vs Sierra (Jun21) W Bad Homburg SF vs Avdeeva (1425, GRIND 7-6) L Nottingham R16 vs Preston (1503) W Nottingham FINAL vs Bondar (1396, weak) L Nottingham SF vs Kasatkina (1697) 3-6 2-6 L London R16 vs Raducanu (1745) 0-6 3-6 <-- bagel W London Final vs Vekic (1752) / SF vs Burrage Reads as: beats weak fields, gets blown out by 1650+. Two straight-set-collapse losses to Starodubtseva. FORM — M. Kostyuk (last 90d): ELITE W R64 Wimbledon 6-1 6-2 vs Podoroska (DOM, 2d ago) FRENCH OPEN SEMIFINALIST: beat Swiatek 7-5 6-1 (2046), Svitolina (2050), Golubic MADRID CHAMPION: beat Andreeva final (2004), Pegula (1917), Potapova (1890) ROUEN CHAMPION Consistently beating 1900-2050 ELO opponents. Top-tier level. FATIGUE A: 3 matches/14d, 263 court-min, B2B, last match 2d ago (long 3-setter) — HEAVIER B: 1 match/14d, 48 court-min, fresh — much lighter load Edge: clear rest/legs advantage to B (>60min court-time gap). NARRATIVE Let-down: none live (last final was a LOSS 11d ago). Venue: n/a (both first Wimbledon match this event). Title recency B: Madrid + Rouen titles this spring, FO SF last month — peak form. VERDICT — PASS (no bet) The +28.5% "value" on Blinkova is a model artifact: ELO/ML price this ~50/50, but the qualitative read flatly contradicts them. Kostyuk is a fresh Madrid/Rouen champion and French Open semifinalist who beat Swiatek; Blinkova is a struggling grass-courter who just lost a set-lead to a 1566 and gets bageled by anyone 1650+. Model prob (0.40) + market (0.88) both correctly favor Kostyuk. Backing A at 8.45 would be betting into a mispriced model, not a real edge. No value on the underdog, no price on the (correct) favorite. Pass. ═══════════════════════════════════════════