TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Aksu vs S. Costoulas (Livesport Prague Open on 2026-07-20) — the market is efficient, with S. Costoulas favoured at 1.34.
═══ A. Aksu vs S. Costoulas — Livesport Prague Open (clay) ═══
MODELS
Market: A 3.15 (29.8%) / B 1.34 | Betfair 3.1/1.45
ELO 35.5% A | ML 46.5% A | Model 36.1% A | value flag: A +6.2%
Alignment: ELO ~agrees with market; only ML disagrees → split
DATA ANOMALY
These two played the Prague Open FINAL yesterday (07-19): Costoulas won 7-5 6-2.
This pending match is the same pairing, same tournament, empty round — likely a
re-listing of the completed final or an immediate rematch. Grading risk.
RECENT FORM (last 5 each)
Aksu (A):
07-19 Prague Final L vs Costoulas (1560) 7-5 6-2
07-18 Prague SF W vs Morvayova (1222) — GRIND vs Weak
07-14 Istanbul2 Q L vs Valdmannova (1500) 5-7 0-6
06-27 W50 Palma SF L vs Micic (1460)
06-26 W50 Palma QF W vs Kubareva (1460) — GRIND (TB) vs Avg
→ No DOM wins vs Strong/Elite in 90d; wins mostly GRIND vs Weak/Avg.
Costoulas (B):
07-19 Prague Final W vs Aksu (1485) 7-5 6-2 — DOM-ish vs Weak
07-18 Prague SF W vs Hibino (1501) 6-7 7-5 6-4 — GRIND vs Avg
07-14 Athens Q L vs Valentova (1500)
06-23 Wimbledon QF L vs Hunter (1606)
06-03 Foggia L vs Pieri (1368)
H2H: Costoulas 2-0 (Saint Malo 7-5 7-6; Prague Final 7-5 6-2) — both straight sets.
FATIGUE
A: 3 matches/7d, 9 sets, 241 min, B2B, last 07-19
B: 3 matches/7d, 9 sets, 307 min, B2B, last 07-19
Court-time diff 66 min → slight disadvantage Costoulas.
NARRATIVE
LETDOWN: Costoulas won Final 1d ago → live letdown window.
NOTE: Aksu lost that same Final 1d ago.
Venue: Costoulas 2-0 Prague; Aksu 1-1. TITLE: Costoulas — Prague 1d ago (clay).
VERDICT: PASS
ML's 46.5% on Aksu is contradicted head-on by yesterday's direct result and a
2-0 straight-sets H2H for Costoulas; ELO sides with the market. The letdown/
fatigue angle on Costoulas is offset by her dominance over this exact opponent,
and the duplicate-final data anomaly adds ungradeable risk. No stake.