TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in V. Mboko vs E. Navarro (Strasbourg on 2026-05-23) — the market is efficient, with V. Mboko favoured at 1.45.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | V. Mboko | E. Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.9% | 63.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
24.0% | 76.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.5% | 69.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
61.9% | 38.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Mboko | hard | 2038 | 98–34 | 132 |
| E. Navarro | hard | 1713 | 86–63 | 149 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 24, 2026.
E. Navarro leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 1 | June 10, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 1 - 2 | May 30, 2026 |
| W | K. Siniakova | 2 - 1 | May 28, 2026 |
| W | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | May 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used