TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Paul vs U. Humbert (London on 2026-06-20) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | U. Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.0% | 34.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
44.5% | 55.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.0% | 34.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.2% | 39.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Paul | hard | 1894 | 154–80 | 234 |
| U. Humbert | hard | 1831 | 131–80 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
T. Paul leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 20, 2026 | London | grass | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| March 11, 2024 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 16, 2023 | ATP Cincinnati | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Martin | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Z. Bergs | 2 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | Z. Bergs | 2 - 1 | June 28, 2026 |
| W | J. Draper | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
All June 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used