TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Fritz vs F. Tiafoe (Halle on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with T. Fritz favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
82.1% | 17.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
61.6% | 38.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
86.0% | 14.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
82.1% | 17.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. Fritz leads 5–2 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Halle | grass | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 5, 2025 | Others matches | — | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 7, 2024 | ATP US Open | hard | T. Fritz | 3 - 2 |
| March 3, 2023 | ATP Acapulco | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 9, 2022 | Tokyo | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used