TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Navone vs L. Tien (Geneva on 2026-05-23) — the market is efficient, with M. Navone favoured at 1.58.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Navone | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
81.5% | 18.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.9% | 20.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.9% | 60.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.1% | 32.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.3% | 42.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
L. Tien leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Geneva | clay | L. Tien | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 17, 2025 | Hangzhou | hard | L. Tien | 2 - 1 |
| March 7, 2025 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | M. Navone | 2 - 0 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used