TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs D. Parry (Paris on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | D. Parry |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.8% | 35.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
82.5% | 17.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.3% | 31.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.9% | 28.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
75.0% | 25.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Paris | clay | D. Parry | 0 - 1 |
| March 8, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | K. Day | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | I. Begu | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used