TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Arnaldi vs F. Cobolli (French Open on 2026-06-05) — the market is efficient, with F. Cobolli favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | F. Cobolli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.8% | 52.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
24.9% | 75.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.9% | 59.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
| F. Cobolli | clay | 1896 | 132–82 | 214 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
M. Arnaldi leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2025 | French Open | clay | F. Cobolli | 3 - 1 |
| July 26, 2023 | ATP Umag | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 1, 2022 | Cordenons | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 |
| May 26, 2022 | Vicenza | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 13, 2021 | Napoli 2 | clay | F. Cobolli | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
All June 5, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used