TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Ka. Pliskova vs C. McNally (Nottingham on 2026-06-18) — the market is efficient, with C. McNally favoured at 1.73.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Ka. Pliskova | C. McNally |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.2% | 59.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.5% | 61.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.2% | 56.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.2% | 54.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka. Pliskova | hard | 1747 | 77–47 | 124 |
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Ka. Pliskova leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 18, 2026 | Nottingham | grass | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 31, 2021 | US Open | hard | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All June 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used