TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Sinner vs C. Ruud (Rome on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with J. Sinner favoured at 1.12.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Sinner | C. Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.6% | 46.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
78.2% | 21.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
84.3% | 15.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 29, 2026.
J. Sinner leads 5–0 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| May 15, 2025 | Rome | clay | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 16, 2024 | ATP Finals - Turin | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 11, 2024 | Exhibition Others matches | — | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 29, 2021 | Vienna | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Zverev | 3 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 1 - 3 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used