TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs L. Noskova (Berlin on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | L. Noskova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
61.4% | 38.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.2% | 41.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.2% | 39.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2077 | 192–73 | 265 |
| L. Noskova | hard | 1892 | 107–53 | 160 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
L. Noskova leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Berlin | grass | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 4, 2025 | Beijing | hard | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 |
| June 27, 2025 | Bad Homburg | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 19, 2025 | Dubai | hard | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | K. Muchova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | S. Cirstea | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used