TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Buse vs T. Paul (Hamburg on 2026-05-23) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Buse | T. Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.9% | 44.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.0% | 42.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.7% | 60.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
I. Buse leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | I. Buse | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
All May 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used