TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Marozsan vs T. Fritz (Halle on 2026-06-18) — the market is efficient, with T. Fritz favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Marozsan | T. Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
7.1% | 92.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.9% | 73.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
7.8% | 92.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
21.8% | 78.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.0% | 74.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Marozsan | clay | 1759 | 115–59 | 174 |
| T. Fritz | hard | 1972 | 179–93 | 272 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 22, 2026.
T. Fritz leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 18, 2026 | Halle | grass | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 3, 2025 | Shanghai | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 19, 2024 | ATP Australian Open | hard | T. Fritz | 3 - 1 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
All June 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used