TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Cerundolo vs T. Paul (London on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Cerundolo | T. Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.5% | 71.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
31.8% | 68.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.5% | 71.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
| T. Paul | hard | 1894 | 154–80 | 234 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 30, 2026.
F. Cerundolo leads 6–2 over 8 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | London | grass | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 |
| March 24, 2025 | Miami | hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 |
| June 1, 2024 | ATP French Open | clay | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 1 |
| April 28, 2024 | ATP Madrid | clay | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 10, 2023 | ATP Toronto | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used