TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Navarro vs A. Li (Strasbourg on 2026-05-22) — the market is efficient, with A. Li favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Navarro | A. Li |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.3% | 47.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.8% | 45.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.6% | 63.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.9% | 52.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Navarro | hard | 1713 | 86–63 | 149 |
| A. Li | hard | 1725 | 116–89 | 205 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
E. Navarro leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 |
| May 2, 2019 | Charleston | clay | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used