TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Semenistaja vs M. Timofeeva (Makarska on 2026-06-07) — the market is efficient, with M. Timofeeva favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Semenistaja | M. Timofeeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.3% | 38.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.5% | 53.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.8% | 39.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
46.2% | 53.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Semenistaja | clay | 1653 | 148–83 | 231 |
| M. Timofeeva | hard | 1616 | 92–61 | 153 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
M. Timofeeva leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 7, 2026 | Makarska | clay | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Ristic | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Riera | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Ruzic | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Sasnovich | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Li | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Haddad Maia | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used