TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Parry vs A. Charaeva (Paris on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with A. Charaeva favoured at 1.64.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Parry | A. Charaeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
37.6% | 62.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
23.4% | 76.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
33.5% | 66.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
31.5% | 68.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.4% | 56.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Parry | clay | 1663 | 105–71 | 176 |
| A. Charaeva | hard | 1610 | 75–54 | 129 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
D. Parry leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Paris | clay | D. Parry | 2 - 0 |
| June 25, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | D. Parry | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Day | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | I. Begu | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Kraus | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Sorribes Tormo | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used