TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Altmaier vs F. Tiafoe (Halle on 2026-06-20) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Altmaier | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.9% | 71.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.6% | 64.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.9% | 51.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.9% | 71.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Altmaier | clay | 1741 | 128–82 | 210 |
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1866 | 126–85 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 5–0 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 20, 2026 | Halle | grass | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| June 9, 2026 | Stuttgart | grass | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| June 1, 2025 | French Open | clay | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 0 |
| May 14, 2023 | ATP Rome | clay | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 16, 2023 | Australian Open | hard | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 1 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
All June 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used