TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Ruud vs M. Navone (Geneva on 2026-05-22) — the market is efficient, with C. Ruud favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Ruud | M. Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.3% | 37.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.6% | 34.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.6% | 31.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.5% | 34.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.2% | 23.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Geneva | clay | M. Navone | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 30, 2025 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | — | C. Ruud | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 1 - 3 | May 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used