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C. Gauff vs E. Svitolina — Prediction & Analysis

Rome · WTA Rome - Final · May 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Gauff vs E. Svitolina (Rome on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with C. Gauff favoured at 1.61.

Surface clay Odds C. Gauff 1.61 · E. Svitolina 2.39

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: C. Gauff · E. Svitolina · head-to-head record · Rome

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method C. Gauff E. Svitolina
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
58.0% 42.0%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
70.3% 29.7%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
46.7% 53.3%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
58.3% 41.7%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
59.8% 40.2%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
C. Gauff hard2045 155–60215
E. Svitolina hard2004 91–52143

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.

Head to head

E. Svitolina leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
May 16, 2026RomeclayE. Svitolina2 - 1
Feb. 20, 2026WTA DubaihardE. Svitolina2 - 1
Jan. 27, 2026WTA Australian OpenhardE. Svitolina2 - 0
Aug. 30, 2024WTA US OpenhardC. Gauff2 - 1
Jan. 7, 2024WTA AucklandhardC. Gauff2 - 1

Recent form

C. Gauff

L K. Muchova 2 - 1 July 9, 2026
W J. Pegula 1 - 2 July 7, 2026
W B. Bencic 1 - 2 July 5, 2026
W C. Liu 1 - 2 July 3, 2026
W S. Sierra 1 - 2 July 1, 2026

E. Svitolina

W P. Kudermetova 0 - 2 July 31, 2026
L A. Eala 2 - 0 July 31, 2026
L D. Snigur 0 - 2 June 30, 2026
L Xin. Wang Walk Over June 25, 2026
W L. Samsonova 1 - 2 June 23, 2026

All May 16, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used