TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Gauff vs E. Svitolina (Rome on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with C. Gauff favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Gauff | E. Svitolina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.0% | 42.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
70.3% | 29.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.7% | 53.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.3% | 41.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
59.8% | 40.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Gauff | hard | 2045 | 155–60 | 215 |
| E. Svitolina | hard | 2004 | 91–52 | 143 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
E. Svitolina leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 20, 2026 | WTA Dubai | hard | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 27, 2026 | WTA Australian Open | hard | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 30, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 7, 2024 | WTA Auckland | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Bencic | 1 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | C. Liu | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Sierra | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | Walk Over | June 25, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used