TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs J. Pegula (Berlin on 2026-06-20) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | J. Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.4% | 40.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.4% | 55.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.5% | 43.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| J. Pegula | hard | 2077 | 192–73 | 265 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 7–3 over 10 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 20, 2026 | Berlin | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 4, 2025 | Finals - Riyadh | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 11, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 5, 2025 | US Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| March 29, 2025 | Miami | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All June 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used