TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Popyrin vs C. Tabur (Geneva on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with A. Popyrin favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Popyrin | C. Tabur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
44.6% | 55.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.8% | 57.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.2% | 29.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Popyrin | hard | 1665 | 84–96 | 180 |
| C. Tabur | clay | 1616 | 156–93 | 249 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
A. Popyrin leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Geneva | clay | A. Popyrin | 2 - 1 |
| W | T. Kokkinakis | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Andrade | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Luz | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | E. Butvilas | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Rodionov | 2 - 1 | July 13, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used