TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Kalinina vs P. Marcinko (Rabat on 2026-05-23) — the market is efficient, with A. Kalinina favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Kalinina | P. Marcinko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.1% | 35.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.9% | 20.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.4% | 59.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.5% | 38.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.5% | 34.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kalinina | hard | 1699 | 83–69 | 152 |
| P. Marcinko | clay | 1727 | 89–46 | 135 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
P. Marcinko leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Rabat | clay | P. Marcinko | 1 - 0 |
| L | A. Bondar | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. L. Carle | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | S. Kenin | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used