TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Eala vs A. Charaeva (Birmingham on 2026-06-04) — the market is efficient, with A. Eala favoured at 1.27.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Eala | A. Charaeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.7% | 56.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.3% | 66.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.5% | 61.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.3% | 29.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Eala | hard | 1905 | 174–90 | 264 |
| A. Charaeva | hard | 1610 | 75–54 | 129 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Eala leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 4, 2026 | Birmingham | grass | A. Eala | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 26, 2026 | Manila | hard | A. Eala | 2 - 0 |
| W | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Kraus | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Sorribes Tormo | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
All June 4, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used