TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs T. Paul (Hamburg on 2026-05-22) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | T. Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.8% | 45.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
34.3% | 65.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.8% | 53.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| T. Paul | hard | 1894 | 154–80 | 234 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 5–2 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| May 13, 2025 | Rome | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 4, 2023 | ATP Los Cabos | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| March 5, 2023 | ATP Acapulco | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| June 23, 2022 | Eastbourne | grass | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
All May 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used